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In brief

A coalition government comprising the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People’s Party took office in February 2024 after the national election delivered a fractured mandate. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party of the former prime minister, Imran Khan, forms the main opposition in the lower house of parliament. Given its slim parliamentary majority, the coalition government, which is unpopular, will depend heavily on the military for political support. This will give the military an increasing voice in economic affairs. The election was marked by vote-rigging, and political stability and security will remain tenuous in Pakistan. Intensifying domestic protests will be curbed swiftly by the military. Real GDP growth will be modest in fiscal year 2023/24 (July-June). Pakistan secured a nine-month loan package from the IMF in June 2023, which will help the country to stave off a default on sovereign debt obligations amid persistent balance-of-payments and fiscal strains. We expect the new government to secure another IMF package after March 2024. China will remain a major strategic and financial ally of Pakistan, while relations with India will continue to be strained.

Read more: Pakistan election: a divided polity will breed instability

Read more: IMF deal makes default unlikely for Pakistan 

Read more: Pakistan’s budget significantly lacks credibility

Featured analysis

Economy | April 9th 2024

Improving performers in EIU’s business environment index have consistently gone on to see faster per-head growth.

More Politics | February 28th 2024

Political instability will persist, and the military will play a key role in holding together a diverse coalition

More Politics | December 19th 2023

Pro-incumbent sentiment will temper political risks and ensure policy continuity, while masking some erosion of choice.

More See all

Economic growth

Economic growth

(% unless otherwise indicated)
US GDP	2.5	1.8	1.6
Developed economies GDP	1.5	1.4	1.6
World GDP	2.5	2.4	2.6
World trade	-0.3	2.4	3.3
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

Inflation indicators

Inflation indicators

(% unless otherwise indicated)
US CPI	2.3	2.3	2.4
Developed economies CPI	2.0	2.0	2.0
Manufactures (measured in US$)	3.4	2.2	2.5
Oil (Brent; US$/b)	71.1	68.1	66.7
Non-oil commodities (measured in US$)	0.4	1.4	2.5
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

Forecast updates

Politics | April 18th 2024

The promised level of Saudi investment may not materialise fully because of Pakistan’s poor business environment.

More Economy | April 4th 2024

The government will struggle to improve the country’s business environment enough to achieve these goals amid austerity.

More Economy | April 4th 2024

Pakistan has said that it will seek a waiver of US sanctions to allow Iranian gas imports, but this will be denied.

More See all

Financial variables

Financial variables

(% unless otherwise indicated)
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %)	3.2	2.5	2.5
¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %)	0.2	0.2	0.3
¥:US$ (av)	107.8	105.3	104.8
Rmb:US$ (av)	6.84	6.75	6.78
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

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